Daily Forex Analysis – November 15, 2010

EURUSD Analysis. EURUSD’s downward move from 1.4281 extended to as low as 1.3574 level. As long as 1.3825 key resistance holds, the bounce from 1.3574 is treated as consolidation of downtrend and another fall to 1.3450-1.3500 area is still possible. However, a break above 1.3825 resistance will indicate that the fall from 1.4281 has completed at 1.3574 already, then the following upward move could bring price back to 1.4000-1.4100 area.

USDCAD Analysis. USDCAD has reached the upper boundary of the falling price channel on 4-hour chart, pullback to re-test 0.9979 support would likely be seen later today. On the upside, a clear break above the channel resistance will indicate that the fall from 1.0372 is complete, then further rally towards 1.0372 could be seen.

USDJPY Analysis. USDJPY’s fall from 82.79 reached 81.65 only, the price action is likely consolidation of upward move from 80.30. Now the pair is facing 82.79 resistance, a break above this level could indicate that uptrend has resumed, then further rally could be seen to 84.00-85.00 zone. Support is at 81.65, only break below this level could trigger another fall towards 80.30 previous low.

GBPUSD Analysis. GBPUSD is forming a sideways consolidation in a trading range between 1.5953 and 1.6298. Further rise is expected later today and target would be at 1.6230-1.6250 area. Key resistance is at 1.6298 previous high, a break above this level will indicate that the longer term uptrend from 1.5296 (Sep 7 low) has resumed, then another rise towards 1.6500 could be seen.

USDCHF Analysis. USDCHF continues its upward move from 0.9548. Key support is at 0.9670, as long as this level holds, further rise to 0.9850-0.9900 area to reach next cycle top on 4-hour chart is possible, only break below 0.9670 could trigger another fall towards 0.9463 previous low.

AUDUSD Analysis. AUDUSD’s fall from 1.0182 extended to as low as 0.9825. Deeper decline to 0.9750-0.9800 area to reach next cycle bottom is possible, and next cycle bottom is nearing. Resistance is at 0.9950, above this level will suggest that next cycle bottom is being formed.

Daily Forex Analysis – November 12, 2010

EURUSD Analysis.EURUSD continues its downward move from 1.4281, and the fall extends to as low as 1.3601 level. Resistance is at 1.3825, as long as this level holds, downtrend is expected to continue and next target would be at 1.3500 area. However, a break above 1.3825 resistance will indicate that a cycle bottom has been formed on 4-hour chart and the fall from 1.4281 has completed.

USDCAD Analysis.USDCAD continues its sideways movement in a range between 0.9979 and 1.0093. The price action in the trading range is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 1.0372. Downtrend is expected to resume after touching the upper border of the falling price channel on 4-hour chart.

USDJPY Analysis.USDJPY may be forming a cycle top at 82.79 level on 4-hour chart, key support is now at 82.03, a breakdown below this level could confirm the cycle top, then another fall towards 80.30 previous low could be seen. Resistance is at 82.79, only break above this level could trigger another rise to 83.50-84.00 area.

GBPUSD Analysis.GBPUSD formed a cycle bottom at 1.5953 level on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 1.5953 and 1.6298 is expected in a couple of days. Resistance is at 1.6298, a break above this level could indicate that the longer term uptrend from 1.5296 (Sep 7 low) has resumed, then another rise towards 1.6500 could be seen.

USDCHF Analysis.USDCHF’s bounce from 0.9548 extended further to as high as 0.9785. Support is at 0.9670, as long as this level holds, upward movement is expected to continue and next target would be at 0.9850 area. However, a break below 0.9670 will indicate that the bounce from 0.9548 is complete, then another fall towards 0.9463 could be seen to follow.

AUDUSD Analysis.AUDUSD’s fall from 1.0182 extends to as low as 0.9942. Deeper decline is still possible later today and next target would be at 0.9900 area. However, the fall from 1.0182 is more likely consolidation of uptrend, another rise could be expected after consolidation and a break above 1.0182 could signal resumption of uptrend.

Daily Forex Analysis – November 11, 2010

USDCAD Analysis. USDCAD moves sideways in a range between 0.9979 and 1.0093. Now the price action in the trading range is more likely consolidation of downtrend from 1.0372. Another fall to test 0.9979 support is expected later today, a breakdown below this level could trigger another fall towards 0.9500 area. Resistance is at 1.0093, only break above this level would suggest that lengthier consolidation of downtrend is underway, then further rally could be seen to 1.0150 zone.

USDJPY Analysis. USDJPY broke above 81.98 resistance and reached as high as 82.79 level. The subsequent pullback suggests that a cycle top is being formed on 4-hour chart. Another fall towards 80.30 previous low would more likely be seen in a couple of days. Resistance is at 82.79, only break above this level could trigger another rise to 83.50-84.00 area.

GBPUSD Analysis. GBPUSD is forming a cycle bottom at 1.5953 level on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 1.5953 and 1.6298 is expected in a couple of days. Resistance is at 1.6298, a break above this level could indicate that the longer term uptrend from 1.5296 (Sep 7 low) has resumed, then another rise towards 1.6500 could be seen.

EURUSD Analysis. EURUSD broke below 1.3698 support, suggesting that consolidation of the longer term uptrend from 1.1876 (Jun 7 low) is underway. Deeper decline is still possible later today and next target would be at 1.3550-1.3600 area. Resistance is at 1.3973, above this level could indicate that a cycle bottom has been formed at 1.3671 level on 4-hour chart, then sideways movement in a range between 1.3671 and 1.4281 could be seen.

USDCHF Analysis. USDCHF has formed a cycle bottom at 0.9548 level on 4-hour chart. Another rise would more likely be seen later today and next target would be at 0.9850 area. Support is at 0.9630, only break below this level could trigger another fall towards 0.9463 previous low.

AUDUSD Analysis. AUDUSD’s fall from 1.0182 extended to as low as 0.9975. Deeper decline is still possible later today and next target would be at 0.9900 area. However, the fall from 1.0182 is more likely consolidation of uptrend, another rise could be expected after consolidation and a break above 1.0182 could signal resumption of uptrend.

Daily Forex Analysis – November 10, 2010

USDCAD Analysis. Being contained by 0.9979 support, USDCAD rebounded to as high as 1.0093 level, suggesting that a cycle bottom is being formed on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 0.9979 and 1.0150 would more likely be seen in a couple of days. Key support is at 0.9979, only break below this level could trigger another fall towards 0.9500 zone.

USDJPY Analysis. USDJPY stays in a trading range between 80.30 and 81.98 and is now facing 81.98 key resistance, a break above this level will indicate that the downward movement from 85.92 (Sep 17 high) has completed at 80.30 already, then the following upward move could bring price back to 83.00-84.00 area. As long as 81.98 resistance holds, downtrend could be expected to resume and one more fall towards 79.75 (1995 low) is still possible.

GBPUSD Analysis. GBPUSD broke below the rising price channel on 4-hour chart, suggesting that a cycle top has been formed at 1.6298 level. Deeper decline is expected in a couple of days and next target would be at 1.5800-1.5900 area.

EURUSD Analysis. EURUSD dropped sharply from 1.4281 and reaches as low as 1.3736 level. Deeper decline to test 1.3698 key support is still possible later today, a break below this level will indicate that lengthier consolidation of the long term uptrend from 1.1876 (Jun 7 low) is underway, then the pair would find support at 1.3500 area.

USDCHF Analysis. USDCHF is forming a cycle bottom at 0.9548 level on 4-hour chart. Bounce to 0.9850 area to reach next cycle top is expected in a couple of days. Support is at 0.9548, only break below this level could trigger another fall towards 0.9463 previous low.

AUDUSD Analysis. AUDUSD broke below the rising price channel on 4-hour chart, suggesting that a cycle top has been formed at 1.0182 level. Deeper decline is still possible later today and next target would be at 0.9900 area. Resistance is at 1.0182, only break above this level would trigger another rise towards 1.0400 area.

Daily Forex Analysis – November 8, 2010

USDJPY Analysis. USDJPY moved sideways in a range between 80.30 and 81.98 for several weeks. Lengthier consolidation in the rang is still possible in a couple of days. As long as 81.98 resistance holds, we’d expect downtrend to resume and another fall towards 79.75 (1995 low) is still possible, and a break below 80.55 could signal resumption of downtrend. Key resistance is at 81.98, above this level will indicate that the downtrend from 85.92 (Sep 17 high) has completed at 80.30 already, then the following upward move could bring price back to 83.00-84.00 area.

USDCAD Analysis. USDCAD is facing 0.9979 previous low support, a breakdown below this level could trigger another fall towards 0.9500 area. Resistance remains at the downtrend line from 1.0339 to 1.0154, only a clear break above the trend line resistance could indicate that the fall from 1.0339 is complete.

GBPUSD Analysis. GBPUSD stays in a rising price channel on 4-hour chart and remains in uptrend from 1.5649. Support is at the lower border of the channel, now at 1.6145. As long as the channel support holds, uptrend is expected to continue and next target would be at 1.6500. However, a clear break below this channel support could indicate that lengthier consolidation of uptrend is underway, then pullback to 1.6000 could be seen.

EURUSD Analysis. EURUSD dropped sharply from 1.4281 last Friday, suggesting that the rise from 1.3734 has completed. Another fall to 1.3800-1.3900 area is expected in a couple of days. Key resistance is at 1.4281, only break above this level could trigger another rise towards 1.4500 zone.

USDCHF Analysis. USDCHF’s fall extended to as low as 0.9548 last week. Further decline is still possible later today and target is at 0.9463 previous low. Resistance is at 0.9685, only break above this level could indicate that the fall from 0.9971 is complete.

AUDUSD Analysis. AUDUSD stays in a rising price channel on 4-hour chart and remains in uptrend from 0.9651. As long as the channel support holds, uptrend is expected to continue and next target would be at 1.0400 area. However, a clear break below the channel support could indicate that the rise from 0.9651 has completed, then pullback to 1.0000 area could be seen.

Daily Forex Analysis – November 5, 2010

USDCAD Analysis. USDCAD continues its downward move from 1.0372 and the fall extended to as low as 1.0009 level. Resistance is at the downtrend line on 4-hour chart, as long as the trend line resistance holds, downtrend is expected to continue and one more fall towards 0.9979 previous low support is still possible, only a clear break above the trend line resistance could indicate that a cycle bottom is being formed.

USDJPY Analysis. USDJPY stays in a trading range between 80.30 and 81.98. The price action in the trading range is more likely consolidation of downtrend from 85.92. Deeper decline to test 80.30 support is expected later today, a breakdown below this level could trigger another fall towards 79.75 (1995 low). Key resistance is at 81.98, only break above this level could indicate that the fall from 85.92 is complete.

GBPUSD Analysis. GBPUSD continues its upward move from 1.5649 and the rise extended to as high as 1.6298 level. Support is at the lower boundary of the rising price channel on 4-hour chart, now at 1.6110, as long as the channel support holds, uptrend is expected to continue and next target would be at 1.6500 area.

EURUSD Analysis. EURUSD’s upward move extended further to as high as 1.4281 level. Support is now at 1.4095, as long as this level holds, uptrend is expected to continue and next target would be at 1.4400-1.4500 area.

USDCHF Analysis. USDCHF drops sharply to as low as 0.9562 level. Deeper decline towards 0.9463 previous low is still possible in a couple of days. Resistance is at 0.9635 followed by 0.9685, as long as these levels hold, downtrend from 0.9971 will continue.

AUDUSD Analysis. AUDUSD has reached the upper border of the rising price channel on 4-hour chart. Minor consolidation of uptrend is expected later today. However, uptrend is expected to resume after touching the lower border of the channel and another rise towards 1.0500 is still possible.

Daily Forex Analysis – November 4, 2010

USDJPY Analysis. USDJPY moved sideways in a range between 80.30 and 81.98. The price action in the trading range is more likely consolidation of downtrend from 85.92, another fall towards 79.75 (1995 low) is expected. Support is at 80.30, a breakdown below this level could signal resumption of downtrend. Key resistance is at 81.98, only break above this level could indicate that the fall from 85.92 is complete.

GBPUSD Analysis. GBPUSD broke above 1.6105 previous high resistance, suggesting that the longer term uptrend from  1.5296 (Sep 7 low) has resumed. Support is at 1.5961, as long as this level holds, uptrend is expected to continue and next target would be at 1.6300 area.

EURUSD Analysis. EURUSD broke above 1.4152 previous high resistance, suggesting that the uptrend from 1.2587 (Aug 24 low) has resumed. Further rise is still possible later today and next target would be at 1.4300 area. Support is at 1.3990, as long as this level holds, uptrend will continue.

USDCHF Analysis. After breaking below the price channel support, USDCHF continues its downward move from 0.9971 and the fall extended to as low as 0.9692 level. Deeper decline is still possible later today, and next target would be at 0.9550-0.9600 area.

AUDUSD Analysis. AUDUSD broke above 0.9998 previous high resistance, suggesting that the uptrend from 0.8066 (May 25 low) has resumed. Support is at the lower border of the rising price channel on 4-hour chart, as long as the channel support holds, uptrend from 0.9651 is expected to continue and next target would be at 1.0200 area.

USDCAD Analysis. USDCAD may be forming a cycle bottom at 1.0046 level on 4-hour chart. Key resistance is now at 1.0154, a break above this level will confirm the cycle bottom, then further rise to test 1.0372 resistance could be seen.

"Market Manipulation" Is Not Why Most Traders Lose

By Elliott Wave International

How often have you heard analysts refer to a down day on Wall Street as "traders taking profits"? Sounds great, but the sobering fact is that most traders — in futures, commodities, or forex — lose money.

Any book on trading will list for you the many reasons why most traders lose. Yet some traders do win; some even set records. In 1984, Elliott Wave International’s founder and president Robert Prechter won the U.S. Trading Championship, setting a new all-time profit record of 444.4% in a monitored real-money options account. Later in his monthly Elliott Wave Theorist, Prechter published a Special Report "What A Trader Really Needs To Be Successful" with 5 important insights for would-be market speculators (including the explanation of why "market manipulation" isnot why most traders lose.)

Here’s a quick excerpt — and to read Prechter’s Special Report in full, free, look below.

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"What A Trader Really Needs To Be Successful" (excerpt)
By Robert Prechter

Ever since winning the United States Trading Championship in 1984 (see footnotes, p.4), subscribers have asked for a list of "tips" on trading, or even a play-by-play of the approximately 200 short term trades I made while following hourly market data over a four month period. Neither of these would do anyone any good. What successful trading requires is both more and less than most people think.

In watching the reports of each new Championship over the past three years, it has been a joy to see what a large percentage of the top winners have been Elliott Wave Theorist subscribers and telephone consultation customers. (In fact, in the latest "standings" report from the USTC, of the top three producers in each of four categories, half are EWT subscribers!) However, while good traders may want the input from EWT, not all EWT subscribers are good traders. Obviously the winners know something the losers don’t. What is it? What are the guidelines you really need to meet in order to trade the markets successfully?

When I first began trading, I did what many others who start out in the markets do: I developed a list of trading rules. The list was created piecemeal, with each new rule added, usually, following the conclusion of an unsuccessful trade. I continually asked myself, what would I do differently next time to make sure that this mistake would not recur? The resulting list of "do’s" and "don’ts" ultimately comprised about 16 statements. Approximately six months following the completion of my carved-in-stone list of trading rules, I balled up the paper and threw it in the trash.

What was the problem with my list, a list typical of so many novices who think they are learning something? After several months of attempting to apply the "rules," it became clear that I made not merely a mistake here and there in the list, but a fundamental error in compiling the list in the first place. The error was in taking aim at the last trade each time, as if the next trading situation would present a similar problem. By the time 16 rules are created, all situations are covered and the trader is back to square one.

Let me give you an example of the ironies that result from the typical method of generating a list of trading rules. One of the most popular trading maxims is, "You can’t go broke taking a profit." (The brokers invented that one, of course, which is one reason that new traders always hear of it!) This trading maxim appears to make wonderful sense, but only when viewed in the context of a recent trade with a specific outcome. When you have entered a trade at a good price, watched it go your way for a while, then watched it go against you and turn into a loss, the maxim sounds like a pronouncement of divine wisdom. What you are really saying, however, is that in the context of the last trade "I should have sold when I had a small profit."

Now let’s see what happens on the next trade. You enter a trade, and after just a few days of watching it go your way, you sell out, only to stare in amazement as it continues to go in the direction you had expected, racking up paper gains of several hundred percent. You ask a more experienced trader what your error was, and he advises you sagely while peering over his glasses, "Remember this forever: Cut losses short; let profits run." So you reach for your list of trading rules and write this maxim, which means only, of course "I should NOT have sold when I had a small profit."

So trading rules #2 and #14 are in direct conflict. Is this an isolated incident? What about rule #3, which reads, "Stay cool; never let emotions rule your trading," and #8, which reads, "If a trade is obviously going against you, get out of the way before it turns into a disaster." Stripped of their fancy attire, #3 says, "Don’t panic during trading" and #8 says, "Go ahead and panic!" Such formulations are, in the final analysis, utterly useless.

What I finally desired to create was a description not of each of the trees, but of the forest. After several years of trading, I came up with — guess what — another list! But this is not a list of "trading rules"; it’s a list of requirements for successful trading. Most worthwhile truths are simple, and this list contains only five items. …

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Read the rest of Prechter’s report now, free! Here’s what you’ll learn:

• Why a trading method is a "must" for your success
• What part discipline plays in your trading success
• Why "market manipulation" is not why most traders lose
• How to gain trading experience
• More

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline "Market Manipulation" Is Not Why Most Traders Lose. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, November 3rd, 2010 at 09:32 and is filed under Elliott Wave. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

1. jack says:

   November 3, 2010 at 16:07

   can anybody tell me only one and best strategy to trade forex, i like to trade very short term for 20-50 pips target

Daily Forex Analysis – November 3, 2010

GBPUSD Analysis. Being contained by 1.6105 previous high resistance, GBPUSD pulled back from 1.6088. However, the fall from 1.6088 is more likely minor consolidation of uptrend from 1.5649, one more rise to re-test 1.6105 key resistance is possible later today, a break above this level will indicate that the longer term uptrend from 1.5296 (Sep 7 low) has resumed, then another rise towards 1.6500 could be seen. Support is at 1.5961, below this level could bring price back to downward move and target would be at 1.5700-1.5800 area.

EURUSD Analysis. EURUSD broke above the triangle pattern. Further rise towards 1.4152 previous high resistance is still possible later today, a break above this level will indicate that the uptrend from 1.2587 (Aug 24 low) has resumed, then another rise towards 1.4500 could be seen. However, as long as 1.4152 key resistance holds, lengthier consolidation in the trading range between 1.3698 and 1.4152 is expected, and one more fall to 1.3750-1.3800 area is still possible.

USDCHF Analysis. USDCHF broke below the lower border of the rising price channel on 4-hour, suggesting that the rise from 0.9463 has completed at 0.9971 already. Deeper decline is now in favor and target would be at 0.9500-0.9600 area.

USDJPY Analysis. No changed in our view, USDJPY remains in downtrend from 85.92. Another fall towards 79.75 (1995 low) is expected later today. Key resistance is at 81.98, only break above this level could indicate that the fall from 85.92 is complete.

AUDUSD Analysis. AUDUSD broke above 0.9998 previous high resistance and reached as high as 1.0022 level, suggesting that the longer term uptrend from 0.8066 (May 25 low) has resumed. Further rise is still possible in next several days, and next target would be at 1.0200 area.

USDCAD Analysis. USDCAD’s fall from 1.0372 extended to as low as 1.0080 level. Deeper decline is still possible later today and next target would be at 1.0000-1.0050 area. However, the fall from 1.0372 is more likely correction of uptrend from 0.9979, rebound would more likely be seen before breaking below 0.9979 key support.

Daily Forex Analysis – November 2, 2010

EURUSD Analysis. As expected, EURUSD pulled back from the upper border of the triangle pattern on 4-hour chart, suggesting that a cycle top has been formed at 1.4011 level. Deeper decline towards the lower border of the pattern to reach next cycle bottom is possible later today. As long as 1.3698 key support holds, the price action from 1.4152 is treated as consolidation of uptrend from 1.2587 (Aug 24 low) and another rise towards 1.4500 would more likely be seen after consolidation.

USDCHF Analysis. USDCHF continues its upward move from 0.9463 and the rise extended to as high as 0.9971 level. Further rise is still possible in a couple of days and next target would be at 1.0000-1.0050 area. Support remains at the lower border of the channel, only a clear break below the channel support could indicate that the uptrend from 0.9463 is complete.

GBPUSD Analysis. No changed in our view, GBPUSD is facing 1.6105 key resistance, a break above this level will indicate that the longer term uptrend from 1.5296 (Sept 7 low) has resumed, then next long term target would be at 1.6500 area. Support is at 1.5875, only break below this level will suggest that lengthier consolidation of uptrend is underway, then another fall to re-test 1.5649 could be seen.

USDJPY Analysis. USDJPY remains in downtrend from 85.92. Another fall towards 79.75 (1995 low) is expected later today. Key resistance is at 81.98, only break above this level could indicate that the fall from 85.92 is complete.

AUDUSD Analysis. AUDUSD continues its sideways movement in a range between 0.9651 and 0.9998. Further rise to 0.9950 area is expected later today. As long as 0.9998 resistance holds, one more fall to 0.9600 to reach next cycle bottom is still possible.

USDCAD Analysis. USDCAD broke below 1.0153 support and reaches as low as 1.0124 level. Deeper decline to 1.0050-1.0100 area to reach next cycle bottom on 4-hour chart is expected. However, the fall from 1.0372 is more likely correction of uptrend from 0.9979, rebound would more likely be seen before breaking below 0.9979 key support.